Uncertainty was a recurring theme at Thursday’s press convention for the upcoming Arabian Journey Market – the area’s largest journey present is ready to unfold amid rising considerations of a international journey slowdown.
Now in its thirty second version, ATM organizers count on a document 55,000 attendees will pack into the halls of Dubai World Commerce Middle over 4 days subsequent week.
However international recession dangers have been rising, and Skift Analysis now forecasts 2% to five% journey trade progress in 2025, down from its forecast at the beginning of the yr for six% to 9% progress.
Requested by Skift whether or not Dubai could be resistant to a journey slowdown, Dubai Tourism CEO Issam Kazim mentioned on the convention: “I’m assured we’ll be capable to trip this wave.”
Dubai’s tourism numbers have elevated yearly since data started in 1990 — besides from 2020 to 2022.
“Clearly, we all know immediately we [Dubai] are a world group, everyone seems to be interconnected to a sure diploma, the place any adjustments occurring impression the complete world,” added Kazim. “Journey commerce has all the time been a part of that, and it tends to get impacted.”
“Nonetheless, I’m assured that the best way issues have been established in Dubai, and the monitor document we’ve, and the position that Dubai performs on a world map, I feel Dubai may be very effectively positioned to have the ability to trip this wave.”
Trade leaders on stage gave extra cautious solutions. IHG’s managing director for MEA & South West Asia, Haitham Mattar, mentioned: “We’re presently in a interval of adjustment globally, and everyone seems to be assessing the impression of these varied bulletins we’ve heard. It’s too early to say what these impacts will appear like. What is obvious is the uncertainty.”
Mattar added: “Within the meantime, we mirror on the worldwide market, however definitely, what Issam simply mentioned provides us larger confidence about what Dubai has proposed.”
IHG is one in every of Dubai’s largest and longest-standing operators, with 27 resorts within the metropolis.
‘Too Early’ to Sense a Drop in U.S. Visits
Emirates Airline deputy president Adnan Kazim, additionally current on the convention, agreed there are “uncertainties” however mentioned that the service is well-placed to proceed progress.
He mentioned: “Aviation as a enterprise has gone via many of those disruptions up to now, together with geopolitical instabilities. To be trustworthy, we’ve gone via all of them, and from the [financial] outcomes we’ll be asserting someday in Could, it provides a sign that we will all the time maneuver via uncertainties.”
Adnan Kazim was the one one to make use of the phrase “recession” on the convention, however solely to say how sturdy Emirates is correct now.
“The outlook is wanting higher this yr than final yr total. That offers a sign that individuals will keep it up regardless of recessions. Folks aren’t compromising on journey,” he mentioned.
Pressed by the media within the viewers on any U.S.-specific impression for Emirates, Adnan Kazim mentioned it is too early to inform.
“So far as the impression on U.S. circulation, I can say that our numbers nonetheless mirror stable bookings between Dubai and the U.S. We haven’t seen a dip, it’s too early to talk on that. There’s an excessive amount of unknown round tariffs and visas, an excessive amount of but to be seen. From the proof we do have, we’re not seeing an impression.”
What May Change in Dubai?
Tourism from the Americas is small compared to Dubai’s different markets. In reality, it is the third-smallest geography behind Australasia and Africa, accounting for 7% of visits in 2024, or 1.27 million, in line with official information. Dubai Tourism doesn’t publish information on visits from particular international locations, reasonably, it teams them into geographies.
Dubai is just not as depending on the U.S. as it’s on Western Europe or India. However, as Dubai’s 2009 housing disaster confirmed, town is just not resistant to recessions both.
Skift Analysis’s 2025 Recession Alert Report highlighted India and the Center East because the markets “the place the basics are simply so sturdy that they need to be capable to energy via a interval of difficult progress.”
Furthermore, the report steered a smaller impression on luxurious vacationers. With the common worth of a resort room in Dubai final yr being $146 an evening, town is commonly seen as a luxurious vacation spot.
One potential shift Issam Kazim talked about through the convention was that the size of keep in Dubai would possibly lower.
“I feel some markets can be impacted greater than others,” mentioned Kazim. “However the essential position journey performs in conducting enterprise, and by way of folks not less than with the ability to take shorter breaks, or fewer breaks however spend longer, these could be the segments we have to concentrate on.”
Dubai Tourism noticed its size of keep inch down from 3.8 nights common to three.7 nights final yr, in line with official information.
Recession fears might have emerged in April, however in line with Kazim, the emirate posted progress via the tip of March.
“Thus far, the primary quarter of 2025, we’re 3% forward, so we’ve to carry out higher and higher. I feel sure, there are quite a lot of adjustments occurring globally, however with the diversified advertising and marketing method we’ve designed for ourselves, it provides us an opportunity to shift our focus as and when wanted to make sure the general progress continues to be seen.”
Journey Inventory Index Efficiency 12 months-to-Date
What am I taking a look at? The efficiency of journey shares throughout the Skift Journey 200. The index consists of journey corporations publicly traded throughout international markets.
The Skift Journey 200 (ST200) combines the monetary efficiency of almost 200 journey corporations value greater than a trillion {dollars} right into a single quantity. See extra journey sector monetary efficiency.
