Senate Republicans had gathered for considered one of their common personal lunches final Wednesday when Rand Paul commanded their consideration. As Senators sipped food plan sodas and grazed on sandwiches, the Kentucky lawmaker went by means of a slide deck with charts and statistics in service of a daring proposal: come out towards President Trump’s tariffs.
The arguments in Paul’s presentation, which has not been beforehand reported, weren’t a shock to his viewers. Probably the most distinguished libertarians on Capitol Hill, he’s a fierce proponent of free commerce. However his try and corral colleagues towards the Trump commerce agenda was seen as a provocation to the President’s shut allies. “The general public seems like free commerce has bought us out,” Paul stated, in response to two Senators who have been current, “however Individuals are richer due to it.” Claiming that free commerce agreements have spurred upward social mobility, considered one of his slides asserted that the center class has shrunk in recent times solely as a result of extra individuals had moved into the higher class.
“Principally, he was saying that everybody was getting richer throughout Joe Biden’s presidency,” one Senator tells TIME.
For some within the room, Paul’s rebel mirrored their deep unease over Trump’s protectionism, which has rattled inventory markets, shaken shopper confidence, and strained America’s relationships with its allies. Economists now concern the U.S. is heading right into a recession. However for a lot of others, it was heresy. Tariffs should not solely a Trumpian fixation, they have been considered one of his core marketing campaign pledges and a bedrock of his plan to reshore manufacturing jobs again to the USA. To that finish, Paul was asking them to undermine the President, a political suicide mission given Trump’s grip over the GOP base.
Amongst Congressional Republicans, Paul has been extra recalcitrant than most. He refused to endorse Trump within the 2024 election. He was the one GOP Senator to vote towards the Trump-backed authorities funding invoice final week. Whereas tariffs are anathema to loads of Republicans who preach the gospel of unfettered markets, Paul is likely one of the solely members of Congress at present talking out towards them. “When the markets tumble like this, it pays to pay attention,” he not too long ago wrote on social media. Behind the scenes, he’s been much more aggressive, courting members of Congress to hitch his renegade mission.
This makes Paul an anomaly. At a time when most elected Republicans are both America First true-believers or conventional conservatives who’ve bent the knee, Paul has emerged as a thorn in Trump’s aspect. “They’ve very totally different ideologies,” says Whit Ayres, a veteran GOP strategist. “Rand Paul is a libertarian and Donald Trump is a populist, and so they have very totally different views about acceptable insurance policies given these two totally different ideologies.”
Paul isn’t the one Republican to push again on Trump. His fellow Kentuckian Mitch McConnell has voted towards a few of the President’s cupboard picks, corresponding to Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. However it’s simpler for McConnell than the remainder; he’s retiring on the finish of this time period. Different GOP Senators who’ve dipped their toes within the opposition have ultimately acquiesced below stress. Sen. Joni Ernst and Sen. Thom Tillis every expressed reservations about Pete Hegseth for Protection Secretary. However after an onslaught of social media harassment and abuse—mixed with the specter of a Trump-endorsed, Elon Musk-funded main challenger—they each voted to ship Hegseth to the Pentagon.
In some methods, Paul has been much less obstreperous than them. He voted to verify almost all of Trump’s cupboard nominees and rhetorically sought to easy the waters final month. “A couple of individuals could have seen that I resisted an enthusiastic endorsement of Donald Trump in the course of the election,” Paul wrote on X. “However now, I’m amazed by the Trump cupboard (a lot of whom I might have picked). I really like his message to the Ukrainian warmongers, and alongside together with his DOGE initiative reveals I used to be mistaken to withhold my endorsement.” The detente didn’t final lengthy. He has since turn out to be a vigorous antagonist of Trump’s stiff tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, which the President insists will provoke an American industrial renaissance.
Paul’s workplace didn’t reply to a request for remark.
Trump and Paul have a historical past of acrimony. Once they every sought the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, Trump opened one of many first debates by ridiculing his rival. “Rand Paul shouldn’t even be on this stage,” he stated. “He’s received one p.c within the polls and the way he received up right here—there’s far too many individuals up right here anyway.” Paul dropped out 5 months later.
The 2 even have ideological disagreements. Paul is an mental disciple of the so-called Chicago College of Economics, most related to Milton Friedman, which argues for laissez-faire financial coverage. Trump, for his half, has ushered in a wave of nationwide populism, with protectionist insurance policies as a pillar of his financial agenda. He has referred to as tariffs “probably the most lovely phrase within the dictionary.”
Tariffs might not be as beloved by all Republicans, however Trump has cobbled a right-wing coalition collectively by tethering his commerce posture to a traditional business-friendly program of reducing taxes and laws. The mass motion he leads has additionally successfully captured the GOP, which operates in service to him. Within the different Capitol chamber, Home Republicans not too long ago relinquished their very own authority relating to commerce, voting earlier this month to dam their potential to problem levies imposed by the President.
The Trump Administration’s commerce conflict may hit Paul’s constituents onerous. After Trump introduced tariffs on metal and aluminum imports to the USA, EU nations threatened final week to slap a 50% tariff on American whiskey, placing Kentucky bourbon within the crosshairs of a worldwide commerce conflict. (Trump struck again hours later by threatening a 200% tariff on European alcohol.)
Whereas Paul has little affect on the President, he does have a connection within the White Home. One in every of Trump’s prime coverage advisers, Sergio Gor, was a spokesman in Paul’s Senate workplace. Sources near Trump count on Gor to function an middleman if Paul’s vote turns into essential to securing an extension of the 2017 tax cuts. Paul, together with a handful of different Senators, have expressed doubts about including to the nationwide debt.
Paul’s misgivings haven’t but resulted in an deadlock. However with Republicans holding a slim 53-seat Senate majority, that continues to be a future chance. And if the tax invoice creates a confrontation between the 2, it might not be the final. By resisting elements of the Trump agenda, Paul could also be setting himself on a collision course for 2028, when he’s up for reelection. “The factor about Trump,” says a senior GOP Senate aide. “He has a really lengthy reminiscence.”
